There is growing evidence that modern EV batteries can last far longer than the 8-year powertrain warranty automakers provide today and that President Biden's emissions standards fall short of guarantee President Biden's emissions standards.
According to Tesla co-founder JB Straubel, the life cycle of a typical electric car battery is now closer to 15 years than the official warranty. Straubel says that even after that lifetime, the battery will be as valuable as the catalytic converters.
His company Redwood Materials is now one of the largest battery recycling companies, capable of recovering “over 95% of materials such as nickel, cobalt, copper, aluminum, lithium and graphite in a lithium-ion battery“.
15-year warranty on electric cars: a boon for the used electric vehicle market
The fact remains that potential buyers of new or second-hand vehicles look at the official warranty figures and hesitate. More than 20 million electric vehicles will come out of warranty over the next few years, and this buyer hesitancy may be a problem.
This is why NIO has just signed a 5-year partnership with CATL, the world's largest manufacturer of batteries for electric vehicles, for the development and distribution of long-lasting batteries for electric cars. The objective is to rally car manufacturers to promote battery longevity.
This would include offering a 15-year warranty for electric vehicles, at the end of which the battery will have retained at least 85% of its capacity. China already has an 8-year warranty on batteries, which the US government is currently trying to implement, but the goal is now to double that.
If the Chinese constellation of electric vehicle manufacturers takes this path, other manufacturers, such as Tesla, could follow. After all, Lars Moravy, Tesla's chief engineer, said in an interview with Jay Leno that his used cars only lose a few percentage points of battery capacity over a decade, which Jay confirmed by citing his Model S.
According to a study by https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/how-long-do-ev-batteries-last, Teslas and most other electric vehicles only lose an average of 20 miles of range over the life of the battery. Usual 8 year, 100,000 mile warranty. Additionally, battery health is in the single digits.
The NIO CEO also claims that the battery chemistries that can make a 15-year warranty possible already exist: “It's technically feasible, it's just we have to set this goal, we have to define this thing“, he assures, adding that “theChina contributes 60% of global NEV sales, so we face this problem first“and we must act quickly.
Examples cited include the high price of replacing a hybrid car's battery, let alone an electric vehicle's, which could decimate the used electric vehicle market.
85% battery capacity retention
CATL and NIO will also work to increase the retained capacity guarantee of EV batteries to 85%, from the current 70%, the threshold at which safety and usability issues can arise. The CATL batteries that NIO uses in its exchange stations, which recently passed the 40 million exchange milestone, already benefit from a 12-year warranty under the 85% retention rule.
CATL will now work to extend the battery longevity guarantee to 15 years, the lifespan of an electric vehicle. At stake, according to NIO, is the nearly $140 billion that users will need to replace the battery in every out-of-warranty hybrid or electric vehicle by 2032.
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