There transition around the electric car put a big issue : that of costs and, by extension, price sales of these automobiles which until now remains significantly higher than for a thermal car. This is due to the battery of course and the raw materials necessary for its manufacture, but also to the more complex assembly processes.
For a long time, it was announced that the tipping point was near and that electric cars would be soon cheaper to produce only thermal models. Except that this moment has never arrived yet and even less so with the recent surge in material prices and Chinese control over mineral production.
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New technics
But the office American consultancy Gartner specialized in the field of advanced techniques has a completely different opinion: according to Pedro Pacheco, vice-president of Research, the electric cars will be cheaper to produce than thermals thanks in particular to new manufacturing techniquesbut also to decreases in battery cost.
Among the parameters, Pedro Pacheco points out innovations such as the “ gigacasting » which consists of flowing from large pieces in one piece instead of assembling several elements which saves dozens of welds or glues. “Tesla and others have looked at manufacturing in a radically new way,” Gartner's former research president told Automotive News Europe. The principle of gigacasting would reduce the production cost of the structure of -20%or even more when the battery is also used as a structural element.
2027?
“The tipping point will be reached sooner than expected,” said Pedro Pacheco, who announced a lower cost of production from 2027. That said, Gartner indicates that this reduction in costs will only concern than 100% electric platforms. Indeed, the other architectures which are multi-fuel will not be affected, because they will be more complex to achieve since they require the accommodation of a fuel tank, a larger space for the engine and a place to house the transmission.
It obviously remains to be seen whether these cost reductions will drive the falling sales price. We wonder if manufacturers will not benefit from it to maximize their profits to the detriment of consumers and motorists. Currently, this is what is happening with You're here And BYD who engage in a price war precisely because their production costs are sufficiently low. Lowering prices therefore does not affect their results too much.
Natural selection?
Gartner also believes that the techniques implemented to produce electric cars and reduce costs will also be decisive in the “ natural selection » which car manufacturers will have to face. For the consultancy office, mastering these techniques will simply be success or failure factors for many manufacturers. The estimates show that 15% of companies of the electric car value chain created over the last decade will go bankrupt and in particular a majority of start-ups. For Gartner, it is enough to observe the delicate situations in which brands like Nio, Polestar, Lucid, HiPhi or Fisker.
For electric cars, a new era would open: one where they are no longer judged or purchased on the basis of fiscal or environmental incentives, but on their intrinsic qualities. We will have to see if these new techniques and in particular the gigacasting are beneficial or not. Because many voices are also being raised in the face of this technology which is considered to consume much more raw material and energy than a structure assembled in several parts… Vast debate.
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